Europe breathed a deep collective sigh of relief on Monday, as the tension caused by the presentation of a new comprehensive peace framework for achieving ceasefire appeared – momentarily – to have been defused. A Washington representative spoke of "substantial progress" after bilateral negotiations in Geneva. On Monday night, the Kremlin made its response: an extensive attack of rocket attacks on Kyiv.
The Cycle of Negotiation and Warfare
The sequence of opposing developments captured the grim essence of the recent timeframe. By day, negotiation efforts are waged: optimistic declarations are delivered from different nations. Considerable effort is allocated on containing specific proposals. By night, Russian leadership forcefully demonstrates the world that, for them, war remains the key method for achieving "settlement".
Nocturnal Warfare
As military strikes progressed into the early hours of Tuesday, the present situation of Ukraine's defenselessness was laid bare. Ukraine is capable of detecting rocket firings from across the border, a capability enabled by up-to-date information. From witness perspectives, Ukrainian air force fighter jets that had been scrambled to counter approaching guided weapons roared overhead – advanced fighter aircraft delivered to Ukraine by European allies.
Moments later, Kyiv's air-defence systems activated: several firings fired to intercept a Russian ballistic missile. This was a sophisticated defense system at work, most likely supplied through Western nations. Every launch creates sudden vibrations, causing tremors. The instant of fear quickly becomes grim resignation: perhaps the hostile projectile won't strike its target this time, preventing destruction from ruin and another blackout.
Persistent Threats
Not long after, a large-caliber weapon fired at a drone in the vicinity, part of a mobile-fire group – most likely allied-provided weaponry. Regrettably, the bullets missed the opposing UAV – it continued its flight toward its target.
Periodically, this continued until dawn. Kyiv greeted the morning news: seven people killed, destruction and utility failures in numerous residences as a result of the evening attack. As always, everyone still continued their routines – experiencing conflict. But those full day demonstrated Ukraine's critical military reliance on external assistance – a need that regional partners are demonstrably unable to fill in the near term.
Unsuccessful Negotiations
The comprehensive proposal from US administration generated strong feelings, debate and serious worry – and briefly redirected concern from Ukraine's most significant graft case in years. Yet, we have experienced comparable situations, after earlier high-level meetings and international summits.
Every new initiative from American administration follows the same pattern: a negotiation push against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with other European capitals, succeeds in resisting. They manage the tension but never actually win the battle. This pattern will, undoubtedly, continue.
Strategic Calculations
It is tempting to accuse specific actors of persistently promoting Moscow's conditions. But that does not seem to be the whole story. US administration operates on a assumption familiar among seasoned negotiators: you cannot secure via talks what you have lost on the battlefield. The White House presumes that it is unfeasible to force Russia to surrender the areas that it already controls in Ukraine's occupied territories.
The issue is that while recognising this factual reality, US leadership does nothing to deter Moscow, through words or deeds, from thinking that the current condition will not evolve additionally in its favour in the near future.
Opposing Positions
Therefore, the Kremlin is certain that time is on his side – that Ukraine and its supporters are coming close to fatigue. Their motivation to sign a deal that does not give them the greatest potential benefit is almost completely absent. There may be numerous efforts to end hostilities, but they will carry on as long as Russia's government remains highly assured in the outcome.
On the contrary, Kyiv believes that Ukraine can still endure, progressively conceding people and territory but averting a complete military breakdown until conditions improve in its favour.
Existing Situation
Realistically, there are no genuine requirements for a truce. Now, subjective factors are entering the equation: political desires to mediate resolution and obtain worldwide acknowledgment, and Kyiv's twin challenges – on one hand, not to alienate a key ally, and on the other, to rally Ukrainians around the national cause against any plan Kyiv finds unworkable, so that their attention does not switch to internal issues. And although their mission will now be significantly challenging after current events, it remains highly unlikely that this will modify their basic position.
These opposing factors are guiding negotiations.
Assessment and Future
It took a just a single week to terminate the suggested clauses of the latest plan. Aggressive and erratic handling of the matter by US administration, opposition by Ukraine and the rest of Europe, along with calming attempts of negotiators, and finally, recent disclosures, all served their function.
While new plans based on established approaches are approaching, Kyiv, London and other European capitals should draw one fundamental conclusion: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to fend off political attacks from Washington that are based on Russian demands and reflect specific hesitation to modify developments, if they remain united and enhance their military capacity at a significantly accelerated rate. If they do, neither external pressure nor military threats will be able to overcome them. In the meantime, Ukraine's ability to defend against evening bombardments will, for the foreseeable future, primarily depend on continued Western support.
