A decade following the UK stumbled into a hasty referendum that split the country and caused turmoil, a advisory is issued from across the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
The government and citizens entered unwittingly Brexit and the identical might transpire with a referendum on a united Ireland, triggering upheavals for which nobody is equipped.
That represents the warning from two leading journalists from both sides of the Irish border who have joined forces to examine the pros and cons of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to establish a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Structures Not Ready
Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have found that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are extremely unprepared for a potentially fraught and transformative public vote.
"The crucial insight of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that stuff can arise suddenly and can gather momentum swiftly," O’Toole remarked. "I would suggest that the governmental framework of our region remains very unstable."
Book Publication Intends to Stir Debate
The duo have analysed the governmental, financial and cultural reasons for any governmental shift in a volume, Examining Irish Unification, published by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to stir debate on the topic with a series of public talks that will take them to Westminster early next month.
"What concerns everybody, or ought to concern every person, is the Brexit vote of 2016," commented the analyst.
"We do not want a national vote on a thumbs up-thumbs down, unclear proposal whose implications have not been spelled out because then you end up with an extremely divided society where people who have lost are unable to accept defeat and the people who have won lack clarity precisely what it is that they have won."
Governmental Mandate
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland official is obliged to schedule a public vote on Irish unity if it is indicated that a majority would support.
Sinn Féin and other nationalists say this point is approaching, and a organisation named pro-unification advocates has garnered backing, but both governments and unionists play down the possibility, resulting in ambiguity if and when there might be a national vote.
Insufficient Serious Debate
Political rhetoric supporting and opposing unification has masked the lack of serious debate, stated McBride.
"Individuals are often for or against the notion but the detailed consideration which may surpass that to make it possible has largely not occurred. Much has occurred in universities but very few government figures or campaigners seek to involve themselves with even the essentials. For instance, what type of nation would you want? Unitary? Decentralised?"
Volume's Strategy
In the publication, no writer endorses unity or the existing arrangement. Each composes two essays that strive for objectivity in presenting the case for a unified Ireland and the rationale against, marshalling economic and social figures, previous instances and structural examples.
Arguments cover flags and symbols, levies, medical care, elderly benefits, public liabilities and the danger of unionist unrest. The goal is to inform and encourage discussion.
"There is significant curiosity in the issue but there is still lacking a dialogue," commented O’Toole. "Debate suggests an recognition of the concept that there may exist reasonable perspectives on each side."
Dual Referendums
A referendum in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the republic, where citizens report they support unification but refuse paying higher taxes or adopting a different emblem to reflect pro-UK communities' UK heritage.
"The Irish government should determine what the proposal from pro-unification movements is beyond just saying: 'We want a united Ireland and we love you'," remarked the commentator.
Likelihood of Referendum
McBride considers a referendum in his lifetime is possible and that it could happen suddenly. "It is possible just a irresponsible or a bad or a negligent official who declares: 'Let us proceed and get it out of the way.'"
Both nationalists and pro-UK supporters have credible, valid arguments, he commented. "Somebody will win here and the other side will eventually not succeed but both parties has possesses something to gain from the opposing viewpoints."
Call for Wider Discussion
Westminster needed to engage with the debate, stated the analyst. "This is about Britain. It is a British question just as much as it is an Irish question."
